David Eby hints at early election, but it would carry enormous risk for NDP

VICTORIA — Premier David Eby ended a troubled year for his NDP government by toying with the possibility of calling a snap election, all the while insisting the scenario was not on his wish list for 2026.

“None of us wants an election, but we will go to an election because we have to protect and defend families and give them an opportunity in this province,” he told Alec Lazenby of Postmedia. “We don’t want an election, but we will be ready for an election.”

The NDP leader turned his party’s state of readiness into a boast in an interview with Wolfgang Depner of The Canadian Press.

“We’re not seeking an election here. But I want to say we’re ready if necessary. We’re fundraising, we’re debt free, we’re ready to go if we have to.”

In one year end interview, the premier suggested that the province could be plunged into an election by accident.

“We have enough votes, I hope to be able to ensure that the government is stable and able to pass (legislation,) he told Emily Joveski of Vista Radio. “But if anything were to happen, if a member was away for some reason or unable to dial in — or whatever the challenge was — and the government lost a vote, then we would be into an election.”

Not necessarily. An accidental defeat would be an embarrassment. But there is ample precedent for a government to call back such a vote the next day and use its legislative majority to reverse the outcome.

Not so a defeat on a confidence matter, one designated as such in advance by the government house leader.

The New Democrats did that five times this year. But each time they carried the day, three times with the help of a tiebreaking vote by Speaker Raj Chouhan.

The government has a majority. It also decides when to call a vote in the house. Thus, the only way the New Democrats could lose a vote is if they can’t count.

Then again, as one wag suggested, Eby’s fiscal record does raise doubts about his mathematical acumen.

A more plausible possibility is the government losing its majority through illness or resignation. Two NDP MLAs were on the sick list this year and one remains there.

A premier facing a byelection or two could instead seek an early dissolution of the house to secure a stronger mandate to govern in uncertain times.

But the two seats in question are solid NDP. There would be no need to risk losing power in a general election when both seats could be restored to government ranks in byelections.

Speculation about an early election call is grounded in the belief that the NDP could stage its own defeat in the house to capitalize on disarray among the B.C. Conservatives.

Some Conservatives are urging their party to get on with choosing a new leader so as to be ready for a spring election.

The perception of the Conservatives as easy pickings ignores what happened in the last election.

John Rustad, an unproven leader with a motley and largely unknown slate of candidates, came within one seat and 22 votes of denying David Eby a legislative majority.

Many of the issues — affordability, health care, public safety — that worked for the Conservatives then, remain issues today.

Plus there’s the big change that Eby himself acknowledged in year-end interviews, the challenge posed by two court decisions that undercut the NDP’s ambitious agenda of Indigenous reconciliation.

One case raised doubts about the status of private property by recognizing Aboriginal title over hundreds of hectares in Richmond. The other overturned the province’s mineral staking system.

Both were grounded in a judicial reading of legislation enshrining the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples — a law drafted in partnership with Indigenous leaders during David Eby’s time as attorney general.

Eby has vowed to appeal the Aboriginal title case and rewrite the two laws. But the appeal could take months, if not years. And Indigenous leaders are pressuring him not to abandon the UNDRIP-related legislation.

The premier also admitted in one year-end interview that the province is having to work on a Plan B in case it loses the appeal.

“We’re looking at all possible options to respond to the court decision,” he told reporters.

“I’ve heard suggestions that we should just use the notwithstanding clause. It is important for people to know that that is not available when you’re talking about Section 35 rights of First Nations people. But we’re certainly looking at all options to respond.”

The New Democrats have tried to put the Conservatives on the defensive over their right-of-centre views on social issues, Indigenous relations and the like. But this time the New Democrats are on the defensive, thanks to their own evasive handling of the issue.

All three scenarios for an early election — defeat by design, defeat by accident, defeat by attrition — pale to insignificance beside the debacle of the NDP’s reconciliation agenda.

Until Eby gets it under control, I doubt he’ll risk a snap election call in any circumstances.

vpalmer@postmedia.com

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