LILLEY: Don’t buy it, Toronto crime has surged over the past decade

There is a push to convince the public that crime is down and that things are not as bad as you think — don’t fall for it. Over the past several weeks, we’ve heard from police, politicians, and even a screaming headline in the Toronto Star, that crime is down and your perception is all wrong.

“Toronto’s set to hit a 50-year low in homicides. So why do many people think crime is getting worse?” read a Star headline from last week.

It’s true that murders are down, so are shootings in Toronto — and those are both good things. But the Star, which spoke to professors and experts, spent a good amount of time trying to convince its readers of nonsense: That an increase in crime is only a perception.

It’s a slight dip after a massive increase in crime

If you just measure crime stats on a year-over-year basis, then things have improved, but only after years of record increases. Saying crime is down overall is like gaining 50 pounds and then claiming you’ve lost weight because you dropped five pounds – you’re still heavier, and crime is still higher than it was.

According to the Toronto Police Service Public Safety Data Portal, the Major Crime Indicators – which include assault, auto theft, break and enter, homicide, robbery, sexual violation and theft over $5,000 – major crime is down compared to the last two years.

With just days to go in 2025, TPS reports that these crimes are down 9.5% compared to the same time period last year and 12.6% compared to the same time frame in 2023.

That’s all good news. Homicides being at 40, compared to 84 at this time last year is also a good thing, but let’s look at the crime stats over a slightly longer horizon.

Toronto’s crime stats have skyrocketed over the past 5-10 years

According to those same TPS stats, Major Crime Indicators are up a staggering 30% since 2020, and up 39% from 2015.

If you want to know why people think crime is up in Toronto, it’s because over the long and medium term it is up. In their crime-isn’t-really-all-that-bad piece, the Star actually said people may think of “the good ol’ days, and that they felt safer in the 1970s or even the 1990s.”

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You don’t need to think back to the 1970s or 1990s, you just need to think back to 2020 or 2015, all within the last decade to realize that crime is up and your community is not as safe as it used to be.

Crime spikes across key categories show the problem is far from solved

Take auto thefts for example.

In 2015, there were 3,285 auto thefts documented by the Toronto Police Service. By 2020, that figure had increased by 76% to 5,798 and by 2023, there were a record 12,539 auto thefts, almost 4 times as many thefts as eight years earlier.

Now, in 2025, we’ve got 7,151 auto thefts so far this year and we are supposed to celebrate this as a decrease? This is more than double a decade ago, so cheering on that we’re down from a record high simply isn’t good enough.

Assaults are up almost 40% over the last decade, reported sexual violations have increased by 46% in that time, and theft over $5,000 – which doesn’t include autos – has effectively doubled.

This trend isn’t limited to Toronto — crime is rising across the GTA and Canada

This isn’t just a Toronto phenomenon.

A review of crime data from York Regional Police Service earlier this year found that between 2019 and 2024, carjackings increased by 523%; shoplifting, 296%; auto-thefts, 133%; arson, 112%; and assault, 59%.

Violent crimes rose from 8,837 in 2019 to 13,882 in 2024, an increase of 57%. Property crimes increased 21%, from 25,423 in 2019 to 30,886 in 2024, and total Criminal Code offences went up by approximately 34%.

Across Canada over the last decade, we’ve seen violent crime rise by 55%, sexual assaults are up 76%, gun firearms increased by 130% and extortion is up 330%.

But don’t worry, crime is down from record highs.

We shouldn’t accept this; we shouldn’t take massive increases in crime as the new normal simply because there is a slight decrease from even worse numbers.

I’d rather go back to the “good ‘ol days” of 2020 or 2015 myself.