Tasha Kheiriddin: The Conservatives who could replace Pierre Poilievre

Is Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre a dead man walking? Perhaps not yet, but after MP Michael Ma’s shock floor crossing last week, he is certainly limping. The defection reignited the conversation about Poilievre’s leadership that started at budget time, when Conservative MP Chris d’Entremont defected to the Liberals and fellow MP Matt Jeneroux resigned to sit as an independent, bringing the Liberals within sight of a majority government.

Are more crossings possible? “I expect two more, at least,” one Conservative caucus member told National Post. “Poilievre will continue to die a death of 1,000 cuts, because I’ve never seen a guy who’s so unaware of the room he’s in, and I’ve never seen a guy who just refuses to stop doing stupid things.”

Poilievre’s also got to get a better script. In a year end interview with the CBC’s Rosemary Barton, when asked about Ma’s floor crossing, he said it was a “problem of Mark Carney’s leadership” and then pivoted to canned statements about “a costly Liberal majority.” It wasn’t just the lines that were tired: Poilievre himself looked weary, stumbling over words at one point, unlike the fiery fighter of the last election.

So what’s the chatter if he were to go? Who are the possible pretenders to the throne?

The caucus contender: Jamil Jivani. The Durham MP also gave an interview to CBC, in which he affirmed his support for Poilievre as leader. But when asked whether Poilievre could stay on if he lost another MP to the Liberals, Jivani diplomatically said “I can’t speak for him.” Jivani’s comments come on the heels of his recent Charlie-Kirk style university tour, and his offer to Prime Minister Mark Carney to help broker a trade deal with U.S. Vice-President JD Vance.

The Western hope: Jason Kenney. The former Harper cabinet minister and Alberta Premier, now lawyer, has fans across the country, from Quebec to Alberta. His bilingualism is a major asset, as is his experience at two levels of government. At an event hosted by the Canadian American Business Council in Ottawa last month, Kenney swore to me he wouldn’t be interested in the federal leadership. But he’s also busy giving interviews to various news outlets this season, including French language CBC. Never bad to stay on the radar. Hmm.

The Bay Street scion: Mark Mulroney. Rumours were swirling in the spring that fellow bankers were seeking to mount a leadership campaign for Mulroney, then vice-chair of global banking and markets at Scotiabank, after Poilievre lost both the election and his seat. Sources say that the business crowd was unimpressed and want someone a little more friendly to their cause. This fall, however, Mulroney became Global Vice Chair of CIBC, which according to some might dampen his enthusiasm for the grind of a political job.

The Canada-Firster: Doug Ford. The Ontario premier’s Captain Canada manoeuvres are just the latest moves that have people talking: Ford’s name has been floated for years as a possible federal Conservative leader. But others say he’d be eviscerated by the party’s base, who feel he betrayed Poilievre in the last election. Nonetheless, sources say there are MPPs ready to go for the leadership of the Ontario PC Party if Ford takes the federal plunge.

But that might be a while, because if Carney does get another floor crosser to form a majority, the next election could be as late as October 2029. One insider predicts that the upcoming leadership review is the least of the Opposition leader’s worries. “Pierre’s challenge will be when his caucus wakes up and realizes the power of the Reform Act which Pierre and other caucus members used to get rid of O’Toole. The big question will be whether this is in the spring or the fall.” Stay tuned.

Tasha Kheiriddin is Postmedia’s national politics columnist.