Mulcair: In Quebec and Ottawa, more political turbulence ahead

What a year it’s been in politics!

One year ago, the bombshell resignation of Chrystia Freeland from cabinet sealed the fate of Justin Trudeau, who had sworn that he’d lead the Liberals into the next election.

Conservative backbenchers were practically browsing for ministerial office furniture, convinced that Pierre Poilievre’s insurmountable 27-point lead would deliver them a landslide. Oopsie!

Exit Trudeau, enter Mark Carney and … carnage for the Conservatives at the polls.

You’d think all this would serve as an object lesson to politicians everywhere: Keep at least a thimbleful of modesty. But no. Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon appears to be drinking his own bathwater by the litre and is behaving like he’s invincible. Despite the minor detail that 65 per cent of Quebecers want nothing to do with another sovereignty referendum, that’s exactly what he’s promising.

PSPP’s sky-high polls, like Poilievre’s a year ago, reflect a ravenous appetite for change — not firm voting intentions. Folks are backing whoever looks most likely to bring that change. His support may be as solid as a house of cards in an earthquake.

The Quebec Liberals, meanwhile, were handed a golden opportunity. An unpopular Coalition Avenir Québec government and an equally unpopular PQ promise of a referendum should have left the highway back to power wide open for the QLP.

Instead of launching a thoughtful, competent campaign to rescue health care and education, the Liberals managed to blow themselves up.

Warranted or not, that familiar “whiff of corruption” has returned to the Liberal brand thanks to the “brownies” debacle that shows no signs of abating.

As for Liberal Leader Pablo Rodriguez, he showed he had a shaky grasp on Liberal values when he stated that Bill 21, which discriminates against religious minorities, was good for “social peace.” In my books, he effectively disqualified himself — and the current scandal is simply the last straw.

If Rodriguez doesn’t step aside soon, his caucus ought to gather its courage and follow the recent example of the B.C. Conservatives, who unceremoniously gave their leader the boot.

Federally, Carney remains far more popular than Poilievre, and no wonder: The Liberals are pitching giant projects to help propel the economy and maintain our living standards (and equalization payments!) Despite the harm they could pose to future generations, most Canadians seem willing to go along if it means outmanoeuvring U.S. President Donald Trump.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives seem to prefer one outside the Ottawa bubble cares about — least of all Canadians who increasingly can’t afford groceries.

The Liberals have also Houdini’d their way out of their unfulfilled promise to tackle Trump’s tariffs, pivoting smoothly to: “Well, it’s not that bad — 85 per cent of our trade is tariff-free under CUSMA.”

Now they want Canadians to believe Carney is the only one capable of negotiating to keep that deal alive — and judging by his favourable numbers, the pitch is landing.

Back in Quebec, Premier François Legault is still insisting he’s sticking around for the next election. Sure. Politicians never deny they’re leaving, right up until the moment they quit — just ask Trudeau or Valérie Plante.

Legault has tried to compensate for abandoning sovereignty by putting the screws to religious minorities as well as English-speaking Quebecers and their institutions — a zero-sum strategy that has hurt many and built nothing but a growing list of bad reviews for Quebec’s reputation.

As it stands, the CAQ is a spent force, but the grande noirceur of the Legault era could yet be replaced by a more progressive vision.

The race to replace him — likely this spring — could offer a fascinating contrast: a pragmatist like Economy, Innovation and Energy Minister Christine Frechette versus a right-wing ideologue like Justice Minister Simon Jolin-Barrette.

If the Liberals are still stuck with Rodriguez, the CAQ might even stage a comeback.

Stranger things have happened. Just look at this past year.

Tom Mulcair, a former leader of the federal NDP, served as minister of the environment in the Quebec Liberal government of Jean Charest.

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