Goalie shuffle coming for Oilers, but will it sandbag red hot prospect?

This in from Bob Stauffer, host of Oilers Now, more news about Edmonton Oilers red hot goalie prospect Connor Ungar, who came up with a shutout and a win in Bakersfield of the American Hockey League.

Said Stauffer: “The Condors’ Connor Ungar with another stellar start. Makes 25 saves for the shutout. Now 5-0/1.38 GAA/.953 SVP since being recalled from the ECHL. Quinn Hutson 1-1-2, now has 21 goals last 20 GP in AHL.Bakersfield beat Ontario 3-0.”

Cult of Hockey contributor Ira “Original Pouzar” Cooper, who keeps a close eye on Bakersfield games, reported: “Connor Ungar with a 25 save shutout…. It wasn’t a bunch of 5-alarm saves all over but there were some decent looks throughout the night and traffic, and he stopped them all and looked good doing it.”

And former Cult of Hockey writer Jonathan Willis, “Ungar is an insane story, especially given how unremarkable his rookie pro ECHL season was last year. This year he’s played for three different ECHL teams (.940+ SV% for all of them) and now he’s kicking doors down in the AHL.”

At the same time as Ungar continues his season long domination of minor pro leagues, the Edmonton Oilers have indicated that NHL veteran Tristan Jarry is ready to return from injury and play this week, with d-man Jake Walman also expected back.

On this front, Cooper speculated: “Walman officially on the trip, rumoured to play Tuesday. Jarry also rumoured to be playing on this trip. Oilers will still need to move one player out in order to activate both (even with Henrique on LTIR) – will it be Ingram, Pickard or Howard?”

My take

1. When Jarry returns the Oilers could go with three goalies in Edmonton, but does that make sense? They all have to play in order to keep sharp and for Edmonton to continue to evaluate them before the 2026 trade deadline.

If the three goalies stay jn Edmonton, the Oilers would also have to move Ike Howard back to the AHL just as Howard is showing major signs of NHL life on Edmonton’s third line. He’s creating more on the attack than he did in his first stint in Edmonton in October and November.

2. The most likely move is to send Ingram back to Bakersfield. Ingram does not have to clear waivers. Pickard would have to clear waivers, which means the Oilers would risk losing him to another team with a goalie crisis.

Edmonton already lost veteran d-man Troy Stecher on waivers this year. He’s been ripping it up ever since as a Toronto Maple Leaf.

And Pickard’s been on a solid run of play. In his last five games he’s got a .911 save percentage. He wasn’t that good before his recent streak, but he appears to have sorted his game.

3. If Ingram goes down, as I expect, or if Pickard makes it through waivers and goes down, the result is a sudden three goalie log jam in Bako, veteran Matt Tomkins, Ingram/Pickard and the hot shot Ungar.

Again, this is less than ideal. Far less.

Ungar is coming on strong. He needs to play heavy minutes at the highest level of minor pro competition for the Oilers to know if there’s any chance he can be called up in case of an emergency.

What kind of emergency? Say Jarry gets injured again or his game falls off. And say the play of Ingram and Pickard also craters. We will all recall that Ingram and Pickard started off the year playing poorly.

Pickard and Ingram have both played well enough in Edmonton since Stuart Skinner was traded away, but they have to be considered a risky bet for an Oilers team hoping to win the Stanley Cup.

4. But why bet on the rookie Ungar, who turns 24 today? Because he’s been a strong to excellent minor pro, college and Western Hockey League goalie for years. Because he’s killing it this year. Because it’s not unheard of for teams to make Stanley Cup runs with rookie goalies. It’s rare but if a goalie is the real deal, it can happen.

Stuart Skinner wasn’t fresh out of the package when he led the Oilers to a Cup Final in 2024, but he was next thing to it., just 25-years-old.

In the 1981 Stanley Cup Final, Minnesota played 19-year-old phenom Don Beaupre three games. Grant Fuhr was 20 when the Oilers made him their full-time playoff starter in 1984, the year of their first Cup win. Patrick Roy was also 20 when he led the Habs to the Cup in 1986.

Again, if you want the best odds of keeping open such an option for the 2025-26 Oilers, it means Edmonton would make it an organizational imperative to keep Ungar in Bakersfield and keep feeding him game starts.

5.  What will this mean for the other Bakersfield goalies?

Matt Tomkins was signed this summer to be a mentor goalie, not an NHL prospect or Bakersfield’s go-to goalie. He’s been OK in Bako, but it’s time for Ungar to get games, and the same goes for Pickard or Ingram, should either end up back in Bako.

It’s a hard move to send the veteran Tomkins to the ECHL, but it’s a poor idea to send Ungar to the ECHL. Yes, Ungar can get starts himself in the ECHL, but the Oilers have an unresolved goalie crisis right now.

The organization would be wise to maximize the playing time of its best goalies and the highest level of competition, so that means riding with Jarry in Edmonton and Ungar in Bakersfield.

Make sense?

6. If you’re wondering why I’m fussing about this at all, the Oilers under Ken Holland made a hash of it with the yo-yo developmental of Philip Broberg, blocking his way to NHL opportunity with a series of veteran players. This kind of mistake can happen.

And I’ve also seen enough of the Oilers goalies this year to believe it’s critical to maximize the preparedness of the goalies in Edmonton’s system.

Injury and poor play aren’t fantasy concerns, they’re realistic ones.

At the Cult of Hockey

LEAVINS: Oilers have one particular part of their game not yet Stanley Cup ready: 9 Things

Player grades: Edmonton Oilers lose tight fight 4-3 to Los Angeles Kings