EDITORIAL: In politics, expect the unexpected

The conventional wisdom among Canada’s chattering classes is that the federal Conservatives will give a strong endorsement to the leadership of Pierre Poilievre at their convention in Calgary later this month, but that he will never become prime minister.

That’s certainly possible. But the conventional wisdom can also be wrong.

The conventional wisdom of the chattering classes once pronounced that Jean Chretien was yesterday’s man and would never become prime minister.

Chretien went on to become one of the most successful prime ministers in Canadian history, winning three consecutive majority governments.

The conventional wisdom was Paul Martin headed a Liberal juggernaut that would keep him in power through at least two federal elections. He lost the Liberals’ majority government in 2004 and, reduced to a minority, lost power in 2006.

The conventional wisdom was that Stephen Harper would never become prime minister. He won three elections and served as PM from 2006 to 2015.

The conventional wisdom was that Justin Trudeau would never become prime minister because the Liberals were in third place in the polls entering the race and Trudeau wasn’t ready for the job. He won three elections and served as PM from 2015 to early 2025.

There are countless other examples of Canadian political leaders defying the conventional wisdom.

In Ontario, the conventional wisdom was that Bob Rae (1990 to 1995), Mike Harris (1995 to 2002) and Dalton McGuinty (2003 to 2013) would never become premiers and if their parties had changed leaders after an election defeat, none of them would have won the top job.

And who among Canada’s chattering classes predicted in 2018 that Doug Ford would become one of the most successful premiers in Ontario history, winning three consecutive majorities and still going strong in the polls?

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We’re not predicting the same thing will happen to Poilievre.

He lost a huge lead in the polls last year when Trudeau resigned and was replaced by Mark Carney, who remains personally popular, although the polls continue to show the Liberals and the Conservatives in a dead heat, within the margin of error.

But we would remind voters of the wise words of Postmedia political columnist Brian Lilley that, as Canadian politics constantly prove, voters are fickle, polls can change and elections matter.