Western alienation has declined to a four-year low: poll

OTTAWA — A new poll shows that tensions with Ottawa are declining in all four western provinces, with perceptions of the federal government improving especially rapidly in Alberta.

The poll, taken by Pollara Strategic Insights, finds that half of Western Canadians feel the federal government pays attention to their province, the highest result in four years. This includes 53 per cent of British Columbians, 51 per cent of Albertans and 49 per cent of Manitobans.

The one outlier was Saskatchewan, where just 36 per cent said they felt the same way.

Even so, perceptions of Ottawa ticked upward in all four provinces. In Alberta, feelings toward Ottawa improved by 13 points from a low of 38 per cent in late 2023.

Matt Smith, Pollara’s lead for Western Canada, said the numbers show Prime Minister Mark Carney’s strategy of engagement with the region is working so far.

“(Carney’s) more economic focus, bringing in policies that the west and others wanted … is resonating with people,” said Smith.

Smith pointed to Carney’s recent memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Alberta on energy development and decision to put the new Major Projects Office in Calgary as meaningful gestures of goodwill toward Western Canada.

Seven of the 13 projects put forward to the office so far are located in Western Canada, with B.C. being home to six of these projects.

Just 14 per cent said they’d vote for their province to separate from Canada, including 19 per cent of Albertans and 20 per cent of Saskatchewanians.

“Western alienation is real, but separatism is very minor and marginal,” said Matt Smith.

The findings defy warnings from pundits, including Reform Party founder Preston Manning, that a win for Carney’s Liberals in last April’s federal election could spur unprecedented support for Western secession.

Tensions between Ottawa and Western Canada reached a boiling point under Carney’s Liberal predecessor Justin Trudeau, whose anti-fossil fuels policies were a major irritant to the region. Trudeau finished out his time in office without a single cabinet minister from Alberta or Saskatchewan.

Smith said Alberta Premier Danielle Smith deserves her share of the credit for forcing Carney to address Western alienation early in his tenure as prime minister.

“She has gotten a disproportionate amount of attention from the federal government … and I think her willingness to come out quickly and throw down the gauntlet served her well,” said Matt Smith.

In a statement posted to social media just days after Carney took office in March, the Alberta premier said the winner of April’s federal election would have “six months” to address a list of energy-related grievances if they hoped to avoid an “unprecedented national unity crisis.”

Smith and Carney were subsequently able to reach a compromise on most of these issues in November’s MOU, which notably endorsed the construction of a new heavy oil pipeline to the West Coast.

Polling shows the MOU enjoys strong support across Western Canada.

The Pollara poll was taken between Dec. 5 and 20, 2025, using a sample of 3,800 adults recruited from an online panel. Online polls are not considered representative samples and thus don’t carry a margin of error. However, the poll document provides an estimated margin, for comparison purposes, of plus or minus 1.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

National Post

rmohamed@postmedia.com

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