Paris to vote ‘No’ on Mercosur, risking major diplomatic setback for Macron

France is set to reject the Mercosur deal in a vote among EU member states, after months of efforts by Paris to build a blocking minority against the contentious accord.

If, as signals suggest, Italy backs the agreement, it would represent a severe diplomatic defeat for Macron, whose strategy to derail the deal would collapse.

“France has decided to vote against the signing of the agreement between the European Union and the Mercosur countries,” Macron posted on X.

He said the “EU-Mercosur agreement is a deal from another era, negotiated for too long on outdated foundations,” adding that the economic benefits “would be limited for French and European growth.”

“It does not justify exposing sensitive agricultural sectors that are essential to our food sovereignty," he wrote.

Paris failure to build a blocking minority

The Mercosur agreement was clinched in December 2024 by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, aiming to create a free-trade area of about 700 million people across the Atlantic after more than 25 years of negotiations.

France has opposed the deal at every phase, citing concerns about unfair competition from Latin American imports and under pressure domestically from its farmers.

Amid rising geoeconomic tensions, supporters led by Germany and Spain have pushed for a swift signing to open new export markets.

The signature was postponed following an EU summit last month after Italy and France expressed reservations. The Commission suggested these issues could be addressed and the signature would go ahead in January.

Paris intensified efforts in recent weeks to assemble a blocking minority, securing backing from Poland, Hungary, Ireland and possibly Austria. But Italy’s position remained decisive in the run-up to Friday’s vote at a meeting of EU ambassadors in Brussels.

After a series of concessions from the European Commission, including strengthened safeguards to monitor market disruptions and early cash payments for farmers, Italy appears to have shifted toward the deal’s supporters.

If a qualified majority backs the agreement, it would mark the first time France has been outvoted at the Council, which represents member states in Brussels - another blow for Macron as he grapples with a deep political crisis at home.