'I don't think the Oilers are close': No deal right now for Edmonton to trade veteran winger

This in from NHL insider Frank Seravalli of the Frankly Hockey podcast, talking with host Bob Stauffer on Oilers Now, giving his take that no quick trade for veteran Oilers forward Andrew Mangiapane has yet materialized.

“I don’t think the Oilers are close on anything on Mangiapane,” Seravalli said. “I think they have been in contact with a couple of teams. I think that second year on the deal is a detriment, and they are trying to work through it.”

Mangiapane earns $3.6 million this year and next on his current deal. He has to approve any trade. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet first reported that Mangiapane and the Oilers were open to a split on Dec. 29, more than a week ago now.

Stauffer asked Seravalli if the Winnipeg Jets might be open to acquiring Mangiapane to help bolster their scoring.

“They need secondary punch,” Seravalli said. “They’re not alone. I think the New Jersey Devils are a team desperately craving it.”

Earlier on Monday Friedman had updated his report on Mangiapane, saying on his 32 Thoughts podcast that some teams believe Mangiapane has been the victim of some bad luck both in terms of Edmonton’s shooting percentage when he’s on the ice and the team’s save percentage when he’s playing (This has led to Mangiapane having a -17 official NHL plus-minus at even strength, the worst plus-minus on the Oilers, with Alec Regula at -13 and Trent Frederic -10).

Said Friedman: “I do think the Oilers are going to be able to find a landing for Mangiapane. It’s one more year, it’s $3.6 (million). I don’t think it’s going to be too hard. He has proven he can score.”

Friedman wondered if the Anaheim Ducks might be a fit, with some people mentioning to Friedman that a Mangiapane, 29, for Ryan Strome trade might make sense, even as Strome, 32, has another year left on a deal that pays him $5 million per season. “Edmonton doesn’t have the (salary cap) room to take all that.”

Friedman continued: “I’ve also heard — although I have not confirmed it through the Oilers — but I’ve heard it that they are looking for a player who probably would be more accepting of the role that Mangiapane was going to start to have to play, which is sort of like a Bottom 6 (forwards). You know, somebody who’s not going to get as much of a chance probably to play with a Leon (Draisaitl) or a Connor (McDavid), that maybe that spot wasn’t going to be there as much.”

My take

1. Friedman’s comment about there likely being a market for Mangiapane and Seravalli’s contention that there’s nothing brewing now don’t contradict one another.

There could well be a market for the winger but it may take a few weeks to put together a deal, as much as Oilers fans like me hope this is resolved quickly. There’s no benefit in Mangiapane playing for the Oilers just now and risking injury. An injury would be a major drag in the effort to trade him without having to swallow any kind of poison pill.

Mangiapane looks to be a healthy scratch for Tuesday night’s game.

2. Strome and Mangiapane are both in point-scoring droughts this year, Strome with just 1.32 points per 60 at 5-on-5, which ranks him 267th for NHL forwards, and Mangiapane at 1.09 per 60, 320th overall.

Strome played 16:41 last season for the Ducks, but he’s averaged just 11:51 per game this year on a better and younger Ducks squad. He’s majorly overpaid at $5 million.

Would the Ducks be willing to eat half his salary to move him?

3. It’s also the case that the Oilers have already had Ryan Strome on the team in 2017-18 and moved him out when he failed to take hold either on a top line with McDavid or Draisaitl (where he got little opportunity) or as a third line centre.

The Oilers acquired him by trading away Jordan Eberle and moved out Strome for Ryan Spooner, a lesson in managerial incompetence from the Oilers.

Strome would go on to become a competent two-way player for the New York Rangers, but that was a few years ago. It’s not clear he’s still a useful NHLer, though I have no credible opinion on the matter, not having put in the necessary dozens of hours watching him closely.

Strome shoots right but he’s a weak face-off man, just 44.4 per cent this year. Frankly, the Oilers would likely have been better off sticking with Noah Philp than making a trade for Strome. But, again, I can’t be sure of that assessment, save for my belief that there’s a decent chance there’s a useful fourth line NHLer in Philp.

4. Why do I agree with Friedman’s assessment that there’s a market for Mangiapane? Because a close look at his play will reveal to any sound NHL talent evaluator that he’s still a good checker and there’s a reasonable hope that his scoring will pick up again on a new team.

NHL plus-minus is a poor stat to rate any player, as it doles out minus marks to players who don’t earn them and plus marks to players who don’t earn them. Yes, if you see a player with a high plus-minus over many seasons that’s indicative of a good player, but you need a sample size that large — seasons not parts of a season — to put weight in the stat when it comes to ranking and rating individual players.

Through video review of the Oilers, I can tell you that Mangiapane is actually +3 this year, making a major contribution to 12 goals for and major mistakes on nine goals against at even strength so far.

It turns out +3 is a weak number for a winger, as wingers have a lot of opportunity to score and not so much defensive responsibility. Zach Hyman is the top winger on the Oilers this year at +20. Trent Frederic is the worst at -9.

But, again, the sample size for goals is small even after 42 games. A much better way to rank and rate Oilers players by position is to go with their Grade A shots plus-minus at even strength, which has a much larger sample size.

A stronger signal: Grade A shots plus-minus

By Grade A shots, Mangiapane is a middle of the pack winger on the Oilers this year, not nearly the worst. He’s been a solid defender overall, but not quite the attacker that the Oilers had hoped.

5. It’s also the case that with Gary Bettman’s drive for parity among NHL teams dominating the league at this moment that many more teams will see themselves as buyers, not sellers, creating a market for players that might not otherwise exist. If Mangiapane is one of the few decent third line pro wingers on the market just now, his chances of being moved and the Oilers  chances of making a good deal go up immensely.

Mangiapane’s value will also improve as NHL teams hang around in the playoff picture and as the attrition of this compressed season leads to more injuries in forward rosters.

That said, the quicker he’s traded, the better. Edmonton has young wingers in Ike Howard and Quinn Hutson who are better bets than Mangiapane, even when it comes to this current season.

At the Cult of Hockey

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