PARKER: Predicting a win for the Republicans in 2026

In a Wall Street Journal interview recently, U.S. President Donald Trump was circumspect regarding his party’s prospects in the 2026 congressional elections.

Although no one doubts the president’s supreme confidence that he is doing the right things for the country (“I’ve created the greatest economy in history”), he acknowledged that he “couldn’t predict if that would translate into political gains for Republicans next fall.”

The party of the sitting president has picked up congressional seats in midterm elections only twice since the Second World War: Bill Clinton in 1998 and George W. Bush in 2002. And the case of Bush was far from business as usual.

The election followed the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. Patriotism was surging, with Bush’s approval peaking at 90%, and by the 2002 elections, it was still above 60%.

Trump’s latest approval rating by Gallup is down to 36%.

However, the case of President Ronald Reagan demonstrates that, although adhering to principles may create some initial turbulence, the right path ultimately pays off.

Reagan’s approval rating, per Gallup, was down to 36% in the second year of his presidency.

Country’s satisfaction rating is low

Currently, per Gallup, the percentage expressing “satisfaction with the way things are going” in the country is 23%.

In November 1982, at the time of the midterm elections in Reagan’s first term, satisfaction stood at 24%.

In those 1982 elections, Democrats picked up one Senate seat and 26 seats in the House.

But by the time of the presidential election two years later, November 1984, Reagan’s approval was over 60% and he won the presidential election in a landslide, capturing 49 of 50 states.

The state of the economy when Reagan took office in 1981 — double-digit inflation and double-digit interest rates — was decidedly worse than now.

Challenges far greater for Trump

However, the overall challenges that Trump faces today are, I believe, greater.

Today, federal debt stands at almost 100% of gross domestic product (GDP). In 1981, it was less than 25%.

In 1980, per Statista, 18.4% of our babies were born to unmarried women. By 2008, it hit 40%, and it has remained steady since.

Per USAFacts, in 1980, the percentage of U.S. households headed by a married couple was 60.8%. In 2022, this was down to 46.8%.

In 1980, the main security threat facing the U.S. was the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union was a security threat, but not an economic threat. Today, the U.S. faces both Russia under Vladimir Putin and the enormous economic and security threat from China. In addition, we must deal with the ongoing threat of Islamic terrorism.

Per the World Bank, U.S. defence spending in 1980, at the time of Reagan’s election, stood at 5.2% of GDP. Reagan got this up to 6.8% by 1982. Per Statista, projected defence spending in 2025 stands at 3.2% of GDP, hovering around a historic low.

Social Security and Medicare, our two largest entitlement programs, which together account for some 45% of the federal budget, are broke. Per their trustees, Social Security will have insufficient funds to pay benefits by 2034, and Medicare Hospital Insurance funding will fall short in 2033.

The world has changed dramatically since Social Security was signed into law in 1935 and Medicare in 1965. What firm does business today as it did 50-plus years ago?

These programs need thorough modernization. Politicians may not want to talk about it. But citizens know there is something wrong.

Although the road of change was rocky at first, Reagan’s unwavering commitment to the U.S. as “the land of the free and home of the brave” won the day.

Today, we have historically outsized challenges. If we are going to have a future, we need bold, courageous leadership. Republicans are the only option. To our good fortune, we have great leaders like Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson on Capitol Hill.

Star Parker is founder of the Center for Urban Renewal and Education