Extremadura votes in early elections with PP seeking absolute majority

The polling stations opened their doors at 9:00 a.m. this Sunday in the 791 authorised centres. This is the first time in the history of Extremadura that regional elections have been called early, separated from the rest of the communities and in December, on the eve of Christmas.

It all began on 27 October, when the president of the Junta, María Guardiola, announced the dissolution of the Assembly after the blocking of the 2026 Budget. Vox and the PSOE presented a joint amendment that overturned the regional accounts, which led to the earliest call for elections in Extremadura's democracy.

The campaign has had an unusual national profile. The leaders of the main parties visited the region much more than usual, aware that this result will be the first in a cycle of elections that will include Aragón in February, Castilla y León in March and possibly Andalusia in June. There has also been added controversy over the disappearance of several mail-in ballot boxes.

In total, 890,985 voters can vote to elect the 65 deputies to the Assembly: 36 for Badajoz and 29 for Cáceres. Of these, more than 26,000 will be voting for the first time. The polling stations will remain open until 20:00, and the first provisional figures are expected at around 21:30.

What the polls say and what is at stake

The average of polls places the PP as the leading force with around 41% of the vote and between 26 and 30 seats. During the campaign, Guardiola has gained a tenth of a point and one seat, but would fall short of the absolute majority, set at 33 deputies.

The PSOE, which won votes in 2023, although tied in seats with the PP, faces a fall in the projections. According to the latest projection, it would fall below 30% and would drop to 21 seats, seven fewer than in 2023. It would be the worst socialist result in decades in a region that has traditionally been PSOE territory.

Vox is consolidating its position as the third force and could double its representation, going from five to between 11 and 13 seats, according to estimates. This places Santiago Abascal's party as the key to form a government once again, after its rupture with the PP two and a half years ago.

Unidas por Extremadura aspires to slightly improve its result, with projections that place it between 6 and 7 deputies, compared to the 4 it obtained in 2023.

The parliamentary arithmetic is clear: the sum of PP and Vox would comfortably exceed the 33 seats needed for an absolute majority, while the progressive bloc would find it very difficult to reach that threshold even in the best-case scenario.

Turnout and incidents on a rainy day

One of the question marks of the day's elections is the turnout. Since 1983, Extremadura has never gone below 70% turnout, except in 2019 when it was close to 69%. The change of date, the proximity of Christmas and the fact that voting is separate from the municipal elections could affect turnout.

The day began with some incidents. At one school, several polling station officials did not show up. Absences were also recorded in other schools in the Extremaduran capital, although the polling stations were able to be constituted with substitutes.

The weather was also unseasonable. The north of Cáceres is on yellow alert for rainfall that could accumulate up to 40 litres per square metre. Temperatures range between 4ºC and 11ºC in Badajoz and between 4ºC and 9ºC in Cáceres.

The Red Cross has set up a special service with more than fifty vehicles to transport elderly, dependent or sick people to the polling stations. The service can be requested by calling 927222222.

Extremadura thus opens a long electoral calendar that could set the political rhythm of Spain until 2027. This Sunday's results will determine whether the PP achieves the stability it is seeking or whether, once again, deals will determine who governs the region.