Thunderstorm threat looms over southern Ontario Tuesday, risk of strong winds

After a gorgeous start to this final week of June on Monday, the muggy weather will return on Tuesday, along with the threat for rain showers and thunderstorms across much of southern Ontario.

Close attention is on a cluster of storms in the southwest, with the threat for strong winds through the morning hours. The risk expands through the afternoon and evening, though will depend on the morning set-up and how much energy will develop.

Regardless, it will be a day you'll want to keep your eye on the skies, with the threat for heavy rain, large hail, and strong winds all on the table.

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Beyond the early week thunderstorms, you'll notice quite the temperature dip as we kick off the Canada Day long weekend. Both Thursday and Friday will be on the cool side of seasonal, with parts of cottage country only making it to the upper teens and low 20s for daytime highs.

Tuesday: Thunderstorm risk spans much of Ontario

All eyes were on an early-morning thunderstorm risk across southwestern Ontario Tuesday, as an MCS (mesoscale convective system) developed through the overnight in the U.S. Midwest and tracked towards Ontario.

The worst of the MCS will remain stateside, but there could be some strong wind gusts associated with it through Tuesday morning. Confidence is low however, on the exact impacts across the southwest, as these complexes are notoriously difficult to forecast when they'll decay.

If you do live in the risk areas, be sure to plan ahead and be weather-alert throughout the day.

That won't be the only opportunity for thunderstorms in southern Ontario on Tuesday, either.

A risk of non-severe thunderstorms is draped across portions of southern Ontario, but the storm activity is expected to be widely scattered and non-severe in nature.

Due to the morning MCS, confidence is lower on the severity of the storms, as that will play a role in how much energy will develop.

In sections of northeastern Ontario, there is higher confidence that storms will develop in the afternoon and evening, with some of them becoming severe with strong wind gusts and large hail the main risks.

Changeable weather for the Canada Day long weekend

Looking ahead to the long weekend, Saturday will be warm and very humid with occasional showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will track across the region Saturday night, followed by cooler weather for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures for the latter days will be on the cool side of seasonal. Showers could linger into Sunday, but Canada Day should be dry.

The first week of July will not be as warm as initially expected, with more changeable conditions are expected. Another cold front or two will prevent persistent heat and keep the threat for showers and thunderstorms at times. Expectation is that the consistent heat is delayed but not denied.

However, at this point, it looks like we won’t see another heat wave until after the first week of July, but we could still see a hot day or two.

Stay tuned to The Weather Network for the latest forecast updates for southern Ontario.