Difficult travel coming with powerful storm that threatens snow, ice in Ontario

An expansive Texas low will bring widespread wintry impacts across Ontario Tuesday and Wednesday. Difficult road conditions are likely, particularly late Tuesday, through the overnight and into Wednesday morning.

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A swath of snow, widespread heavy rains, blustery winds, and even a risk for ice pellets and freezing rain will spread across the province as the low arrives in the region through Tuesday.

Expect widespread travel disruptions for the duration of this high-impact storm, especially being one of the biggest systems of the season so far. The snow accumulation and threat for icy conditions may catch some drivers off guard.

A Texas low you'd expect in April, not January

It’s a classic winter storm that’s carving an unusual track. The sprawling low-pressure system will draw on cold air from Canada, warm and humid air from the Gulf of Mexico, and a tremendous amount of energy swinging over the Rockies to produce an array of hazardous weather across the continent.

Disruptive storms in the middle of January tend to track farther east than our current storm will. This system will move from Texas straight into the Great Lakes—a path more common of an early spring storm than a mid-winter soaker.

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Precipitation starts as snow before switching to rain

This track will bring the centre of the low through Michigan into central Ontario, leaving forecasters confident that southern Ontario will eventually fall on the warm and rainy side of the storm.

We'll see a batch of heavy, wet snow develop in southern Ontario on Tuesday as the edge of this system pushes into cold air in place across the region. It won’t last long, however, as snow will quickly transition over to rain as warmer winds surge into the area.

Communities in and around Toronto could see 2-8 cm of snow on Tuesday before the precipitation changes over to rain. Areas close to Lake Ontario will see minimal snowfall and change to rain sooner.

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We could see 20-30 mm of rain from this system on top of any snow that falls, making for a sloppy situation for travellers.

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Environment and Climate Change (ECCC) Canada has issued special weather statements north of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) into cottage country—including Barrie, Collingwood, and Orillia—advising for the winter weather potential on Tuesday.

“Snowfall warnings or winter road weather advisories may be issued for some areas as the storm approaches,” ECCC said in its statement.

Winter storm watches are in effect for portions of central and eastern Ontario, where forecasters expect the system to produce more widespread wintry precipitation.

Colder air will hang on for a bit longer across eastern Ontario at the onset of the storm there, allowing for more wintry precipitation before the changeover to liquid rain.

Folks around Ottawa could see up to 15 cm of snow, with a risk for ice pellets or freezing rain near the Ontario/Quebec border before the changeover to rain.

Farther west, the track of the storm may allow North Bay and Sudbury to remain all-snow for the duration of the event, allowing the communities to pile up as much as 25 cm of snow through Wednesday.

Gusty winds likely through Wednesday

The low-pressure system’s impressive minimum pressure will fall to about 975 mb as it churns across Lake Huron, which is unusually low for any system trekking through the area any time of year. January’s record-low air pressure sits in the 960s, though, so our current storm is rare but not unprecedented.

All that energy will convert into gusty winds across the entire breadth of the storm.

Very strong winds will develop over southern Ontario on Tuesday, with sustained southwesterly winds up to 60 km/h blowing across Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Wind gusts up to 90 km/h are possible on Wednesday as the low moves north of the region.

An active pattern is expected to continue through the third week of January, with the potential for a few days of very cold weather between January 15 and 20.

Stay with The Weather Network for the latest on this major storm in Ontario

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