Sneaky weekend snow squall threat in Ontario precedes bigger storm next week

As we enter into the first weekend of January, the winter weather is set to pick up in a hurry across parts of Ontario, and then Quebec. This may catch some drivers off guard, especially after a December that brought record-setting warm weather and a hefty dose of holiday rain and fog.

A sneaky snow squall threat will spread across parts of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) this weekend, with an intense band of snow setting up near the city of Toronto itself. Drivers across the city are urged to stay alert and leave plenty of extra time, with a quick shot of 3-5 cm possible into Sunday.

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Beyond this weekend, all eyes are on a massive Texas low that will bring significant winter weather to millions across North America next Tuesday and Wednesday. While specific storm impacts are still uncertain at this time, parts of Ontario and Quebec could be in line for some heavy snowfall and winter travel woes.

Here's what we are watching in the days to come.

Snow squall threat takes aim at Toronto and surrounding areas this weekend

A strong storm passing through the U.S. will bring just enough moisture and a favourable wind direction for lake-effect snow to develop over Lake Ontario this weekend.

Lake-effect snow is characterized as very narrow bands of intense snowfall that can bring significant accumulations and winter travel troubles. Meanwhile, others just a short distance away may see no snowfall whatsoever.

By late Saturday and through Sunday, the city of Toronto and surrounding regions will be at risk of this lake-effect set-up. A very narrow band of locally heavy snowfall is forecast to develop, but there is some uncertainty as to where the squall will lock in. The shores of Lake Ontario from Burlington to Oshawa, including Toronto, are all at risk.

While most areas will see no snowfall, others could wind up recording 1-5+ cm by Sunday morning. Travel routes including the Gardiner, DVP and 401 east of Toronto have a risk for slowdowns early Sunday.

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Because of the small-scale weather ingredients that generate lake-effect snow, there is still room for change. Temperatures a degree or two colder, or a slight shift in wind direction can make or break this forecast.

Be sure to check back prior to Sunday as we monitor your city's snowfall chances.

RELATED: Why snow squalls are one of the hardest events to forecast

Massive Texas low one to watch for next Tuesday

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A sprawling Texas low will bring significant snow to millions across North America by next week.

This will be the first major system of 2024 for both Ontario and Quebec. While it is still far too early to give specifics on storm impacts, Tuesday and Wednesday will be the days to watch.

EXPLAINER: How Texas lows influence Canadian weather

It's a classic southern U.S. winter storm set-up, where some areas will see significant snowfall and winter travel woes, but mixing and rain may be a factor elsewhere.

A cold Arctic air mass will collide with its opposing warm, and highly moist Gulf of Mexico air over the U.S. South. Both of these air masses will be drawn into a Texas low as it develops. The result is significant winter weather on the north side of the storm, and severe weather to the south. Where exactly these precipitation types lay is uncertain at this time as the storm's track continues to shift.

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Currently, the storm's track aims at the Great Lakes, delivering a massive area of high wind risk and significant snow in its wake. The U.S. National Weather Service has a concerning large area of high wind chances during the event that spans over 2000 kilometres—nearly half the width of the United States.

These same threats will not stop at the border, either. The Texas low is likely to strengthen prior to impacting Ontario late on Tuesday.

Parts of Ontario and Quebec can expect a swath of heavy snowfall through Wednesday, with some rain mixing in for those south of the low pressure centre.

The storm track will make all the difference, so be sure to continue to check back this weekend as we nail down your first major storm of 2024.

WATCH: Canada's January Outlook: Winter makes a strong comeback

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