John Ivison: Mark Carney’s conceivable tragic fall will come from hubris

It has been curious to watch Prime Minister Mark Carney’s parade of year-end interviews while reading Paul Litt’s excellent 2011 biography of former prime minister John Turner: Elusive Destiny.

Many of Turner’s qualities, as noted by journalist Ron Graham in a Saturday Night magazine profile ahead of the 1984 Liberal leadership election, could equally be said of Carney.

“(Turner’s) personality is a methodically achieved balance between his obsessive fears of failure or making a mistake, and his heroic conceits about his ability to influence people and get things done. His fears are tested constantly by his ambition, his assumption of superiority and the expectations of others, but any arrogance is checked at once by his insecurity, his sensitivity to criticism and the humility ingrained by his Roman Catholic faith.”

Both Right Honourable men were accused of being business-oriented politicians who abandoned natural Liberal constituencies on the left. But while Turner’s leadership was undermined by one mutiny after another, Carney has, thus far, faced remarkably little gravitational pull from the left.

The parallels only go so far.

Turner had a vexed relationship with his caucus, the media and voters, some of which Litt suggests may have originated in the Liberal leader’s sense that he deserved a certain degree of deference and should not have to work for it.

To this point, Carney has lived a charmed life with all three audiences.

Turner inherited a Liberal franchise at the end of the road, after 16 years of Pierre Trudeau. Three months later he lost the 1984 election.

Carney, of course, became leader after nearly 12 years of Justin Trudeau but won a general election in April.

Beyond their contrasting fortunes, there are clear differences in style.

Turner did not project warmth on television and spinning platitudes went against his instincts, all of which proved his undoing.

Watching Carney’s , affability is not the prime minister’s problem. Nor is confidence. Carney would no doubt argue that he is not vain, but rather he is conscious that he is unique.

He told Friesen that Canada is better off as a country than it was nine months ago (when he took office) and that his plan will guide the country out of the crisis caused by the United States fundamentally changing its policies.

Turner admitted he had problems reducing the complexity of the problems facing Canadians into 30-second clips. Carney barely tries to explain the intricacies of what he sees as a coherent public policy matrix. The plan sounds plausible: the “necessary conditions” to build an oil pipeline have been met in the memorandum of understanding with Alberta but the “sufficient conditions” remain works in progress (increasing the industrial carbon tax, building the Pathways carbon capture project, cutting methane emissions and so on).

Absent details or results, Canadians have been willing to give the prime minister the benefit of the doubt.

Polls suggest most voters, including a third of Conservatives, have confidence in Carney to manage the economy. As always, the prime minister doesn’t have to be perfect, he just has to be better than the other guy, and he continues to maintain a considerable polling advantage over Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

But Carney might not have Poilievre to kick around for much longer, given the Conservative leader’s pending date with a leadership convention. A Globe and Mail profile this week revealed Poilievre has been hosting small groups of MPs for breakfast at the official Opposition residence to “build stronger relationships.” Both MPs Michael Ma and Chris d’Entremont reportedly broke bread with Poilievre in recent times — before defecting to the Liberals.

They are either serving day-old bagels at Stornoway, or the leader needs to revise his “disciplined but inclusive” approach to caucus management.

Despite Poilievre’s local difficulties, there are warning signs for Carney. The latest Abacus Data poll suggests his disapproval level is at its highest since he became prime minister, while the cost-of-living issue is considered the worst in living memory by two-thirds of voters.

Friesen asked Carney about affordability, and it was an example of the prime minister at his least convincing.

He said he understands that, while inflation has been tamed for now, the level of prices remains high. He said he intends to act upon it but offered no specifics, beyond pointing out that his government cut the lowest marginal personal income tax rate by one percentage point and protected child-care, school food and dental-care programs from cuts in the budget.

“Fundamentally, we have to grow the economy, to make it more independent, more sustainable,” he said.

In other words, take it on faith. In a perceptive analysis of Carney on Substack, pollster David Coletto argued that the prime minister’s ultimate undoing will be if he “allows resentment towards the need for public approval to take root,  if it has not already begun to form.

“(Canadians) are open to leadership but only if it feels grounded in their lived reality,” Coletto wrote.

To this point, Carney has played the game, learning the value of staged photo ops, prepared to ham it up when required.

During the election in late April, he was in Truro, N.S., riding the stick like Tiger Williams after scoring a goal during a ball-hockey game with under-10s. As protesters on the road outside the farm yelled that Carney is a “WEF puppet” (referring to the World Economic Forum), he put his finger to his ear and joked: “I’m listening for the orders coming in.”

“He’s a much better politician than I thought he’d be,” said one woman in the crowd.

But engaging with people remains the most surprising part of the job, Carney told Friesen. “I’m not perfect at it,” he said.

Coletto suggested politicians can grow frustrated with voters who do not immediately grasp complexity or who react emotionally to change. “Over time, frustration can harden into distance, and distance erodes trust,” he wrote.

It is, no doubt, lonely at the top and past prime ministers have often mistaken criticism for persecution.

Carney’s ability to maintain his affability, if public approval slips further, may depend on whether his heroic conceits are checked by his ingrained humility.

National Post

jivison@criffel.ca