SNOBELEN: January leadership review looming large for Pierre Poilievre

It’s late December and diehard Leafs fans can still hope for a run for the Stanley Cup. Winter is a time for optimism; spring brings harsh realities.

The same has been true for the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC). This time last year, they were 25 points ahead in the polls. Pierre Poilievre was cruising to the prime minister’s office until he got hit with a couple of hockey sticks.

Early last January, Poilievre’s favourite punching bag, Justin Trudeau, announced his resignation as Liberal party leader, setting off the coronation of Mark Carney.

At the same time, newly elected President Donald Trump shocked even his most ardent Canadian supporters with a series of diatribes aimed squarely at Canada.  His references to Canada as the 51st state and the market meltdown caused by his Liberation Day tariffs had a profound effect on the Canadian election.

By late April, the polls showed two hockey sticks. The Liberals under Carney had spiked up in support, ultimately edging out the Conservatives by a couple of points on election day. That rise did not come at the expense of the Conservative Party. Instead, it was a result of the second hockey stick polling result — the collapse of the NDP.

Message didn’t land with undecided voters

The CPC hadn’t lost support, but it had been overwhelmed by the extraordinary events of the time. CPC messaging didn’t land with undecided voters, setting up a 30-point swing in the polls and the ultimate victory of the Liberals under Carney.

But that was then. January 2026 should herald a new era of enthusiasm for the CPC as members gather for a convention in Calgary. The 2025 election is long past and the important task of leading a national party during a time of existential threats looms.

It is a moment for historic change, much of it long overdue. The challenge for the CPC is how to put the disappointment of last spring in the rearview mirror and meet the opportunity. The times call for a different, better CPC.

Much of the focus over the last few weeks has been on the fate of Poilievre, who faces a leadership review at the convention. Questions about his leadership style and decision-making began during a campaign that seemed tone-deaf to the concerns of voters. Post-election events have brought little comfort to CPC members.

Carney leads a minority government. As the last Trudeau government proved, with the NDP chronically in disarray, Carney doesn’t need to fear defeat in the Commons or on the election trail.

CPC floundered in past six months

The recent floor-crossing of two Conservatives is not critically important to the immediate future of Carney and the Liberals, but the defection of Conservative members represents a significant momentum swing and weakens the CPC. This is not a good look for Poilievre.

Much will be written over the next month about the fate of Poilievre. His leadership does not appear to be seriously challenged at the Calgary convention, but his post-election record will give CPC members cause for concern.

Great leaders are what the times call for them to be. The nonsense spewed about leaders being authentic is just that — nonsense.  Successful leaders grow, change and adapt the skills and practices the times call for.

Over the last six months, the CPC has floundered. If the CPC wants to avoid the spring letdown so familiar to Leafs fans, it had better get serious about providing a credible alternative to Carney and the Liberals.