LILLEY: Pierre Poilievre under pressure as Conservative caucus cracks

Pierre Poilievre says that 2025 has been a “hell of a year.”

Sitting in the boardroom of Postmedia’s headquarters for a year-end interview, it’s an interesting reflection on how things have changed since last year’s interview.

In that chat, Poilievre boldly stated that he would defund CBC very quickly if he were elected. Of course, he wasn’t elected, none of the political predictions of a year ago came true, and now he’s giving interviews on CBC.

Conservative caucus in flux

The Conservative Party is also in flux, two MPs have crossed the floor, another has announced his resignation and more may leave to other political ventures, or worse for Poilievre, join the Liberals and grant Mark Carney a majority. If that happens, Poilievre dismisses the idea that he would or should step down as party leader.

His view is that he should only be removed by members.

“It comes down to a very simple question, Brian, who runs the party? Backroom deal makers or the welders and waitresses and plumbers and police officers, the soldiers, the small businesspeople who are actually going to be delegates at the convention? They decide who the leader is, and they will decide when they vote,” Poilievre said.

Echoes of the O’Toole leadership ouster

It’s an interesting stance for him to take given that the leadership of the Conservative Party opened up for him in February of 2022 when a group of MPs decided to oust former leader Erin O’Toole. Several of the key players in that bloodless coup were also key organizers for Poilievre’s campaign.

The party can remove him if they choose but right now, he’s in the fortunate position that no one is organizing to do so.

Keeping caucus onside ahead of Calgary convention

That said, with three MPs having left and more rumoured to be looking to cross the floor, Poilievre needs to keep his caucus members onside. The House comes back from their Christmas break on Jan. 26, just days before the Calgary convention and leadership review.

If he were smart, he’d be doing what he can between now and then to make MPs feel valued wanted. In the past, Poilievre has told members in caucus meetings that they can have their say, but that doesn’t mean they will have their sway.

That’s a fine message if you are 20 points up in the polls and a popular leader like he was a year ago, but things have definitely changed since then.

Caucus management becomes the real test

In reality, Poilievre has two leadership reviews underway. There is the one in January, where party members vote and in that one, he’s expected to do well. But thanks to the Conservatives adopting the Reform Act, he is under constant review with his MPs.

Poilievre knows the message he will deliver in Calgary to party members before they vote.

“My message to them will be that, you know, we got a record number of votes in the last election. We’ve led the debate on carbon taxes, inflation, housing costs, crime, natural resources, drugs and more. And we will win the next election to deliver for them,” Poilievre said.

Now he needs a message for the MPs and Senators that make up the Conservative caucus. The team is not as united and motivated as they once were; they aren’t willing to sit and watch the Pierre Show play out.

Building a team, not a one-man show

Caucus management can be a time-consuming task, but successful politicians need to do it, need to master it. Brian Mulroney used to call his MPs all the time just to see if they needed anything, and he was leader. Doug Ford is in constant contact with his MPPs, listening to their concerns and delegating issues they raise to be dealt with.

Poilievre needs to find a way to take some of these techniques and apply them. He also needs to start showcasing a team so that when the next election comes, voters will see a government in waiting instead of a one-man show, which is what they are getting now.

Some readers may laugh at the idea that there would be an election in the coming year, and the Conservatives could win it. But if the last year has taught us anything, Pierre Poilievre in particular, you never know how the year ahead will unfold.

blilley@postmedia.com