GOLDSTEIN: Guilbeault playing separatist card to oppose Alberta pipeline

Steven Guilbeault’s claim the federal government’s memorandum of understanding with Alberta to build an oil pipeline to B.C. is fuelling Quebec separatism is nonsense.

In interviews with Bloomberg News and the CBC last week after he quit the federal cabinet, Guilbeault attempted to toss a grenade into Canadian unity by arguing that by signing the MOU with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, Prime Minister Mark Carney is fuelling Quebec separatism,

“There is a feeling right now that by abandoning our climate goals we are fuelling the separatist movement,” Guilbeault said, arguing that by seeking to address frustration in Alberta with federal energy policies that have contributed to separatist sentiment in Alberta, Carney is fuelling separatist sentiment in Quebec.

While the former Greenpeace activist may have that feeling, it’s not shared by most Quebecers.

A recent Leger poll found two-thirds of Quebecers oppose separation, compared to one-third in favour.

What is true is that the separatist Parti Quebecois is leading in the polls in Quebec.

PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has promised to hold a referendum if he defeats Premier Francois Legault’s Coalition Avenir Quebec party in the next provincial election that must be held on or before Oct. 5, 2026.

This despite the fact the Leger poll found only 28% of Quebecers want a referendum by 2030 and 55% don’t believe Quebec has the financial and economic resources to go it alone.

The reason, as an Angus Reid survey done after Carney and Smith signed the MOU found, is that Quebecers are mainly concerned with the same issues as other Canadians.

In Quebec, the cost of living and inflation (59%), health care (46%) and housing affordability (30%) are the dominant concerns.
Concern about the environment and climate change while slightly higher than the national average, trails at 23%.

Polling by Abacus Data, also done in the wake of the MOU, found 55% support the agreement nationally.

While support in Quebec was lower at 42%, the views of Quebecers mirrored the national average on what it says about Carney’s leadership in agreeing to the MOU.

On that issue, 52% of Quebecers, compared to 54% of all Canadians surveyed, said the MOU is a worthwhile compromise that could bring major economic gains for Canada, even if it represents a step back on environmental policy.

By contrast, only 28% of Quebecers described the MOU as a betrayal of Carney’s previous positions on energy and the environment, compared to 24% of all Canadians.

Then there’s Guilbeault’s limited political influence in Quebec.

As Abacus Data CEO David Coletto described it:

“Steven Guilbeault’s resignation from cabinet in response to the MOU offers a clear test of how Canadians balance climate ambition against energy development. On the surface, Guilbeault’s departure might have been expected to inflame opinion, particularly in Quebec where his political identity is most strongly rooted. But the data suggest his influence is limited.

“Only 25% of Quebecers hold a positive view of Guilbeault and he has negative impressions across the rest of the country … even in Quebec it’s barely positive at +6%”, meaning that while 25% of Quebecers view him positively, 19% view him negatively.

By comparison, 48% of Quebecers view Carney positively, and his net positive rating (positive 48% vs negative 23%) is +25.

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As the Abacus poll concludes:

“At the heart of the MOU is a core question: can Canada lead on energy while still delivering on climate goals? Most Canadians believe the answer is yes. A clear majority think the country can do both … Even in Quebec, where environmental concerns tend to be more pronounced, over half agree this dual path is possible.”

None of this means the MOU will inevitably lead to a new pipeline delivering Alberta bitumen to tidewater in B.C. and from there to Asian markets by oil tankers, given the numerous hurdles it will have to overcome.

Among them, given Guilbeault’s example, is that the BQ in Ottawa and the PQ in Quebec will attempt to stir up separatist sentiment there over a proposed oil pipeline from Alberta to B.C., by arguing Carney could do the same thing to Quebec.

In other words, it will be business as usual for the separatists – sow disunity.

lgoldstein@postmedia.com