Fewer Canadian snowbirds expected to visit U.S. this winter, survey suggests

Fewer snowbirds are expected to visit the United States this winter, according to an industry survey, while those who do can expect increased scrutiny at the border as the Trump administration tightens immigration rules.

Snowbird Advisor surveyed 4,000 Canadian snowbirds about their travel plans this year, finding that 70 per cent plan to visit the United States, down from 82 per cent last year.

Those results come as Canadian snowbirds face new registration requirements if they intend to stay in the U.S. for longer than a month, according to Ksenia Tchern McCallum, an immigration attorney licensed in both Canada and the U.S. who advises clients on both sides of the border.

They could also face stiff fines and even jail time as potential consequences for non-compliance, she said.

“It’s definitely not business as usual," Tchern McCallum told CBC.

No more 'smooth sailing'

Shortly after taking office for his second term in January, President Donald Trump signed an executive order called “Protecting the American People Against Invasion.” It required that all “aliens” visiting the United States for more than 30 days register with the government.

“What may have been smooth sailing traveling before is not the case now,” Tchern McCallum said. “You have to be a bit better prepared.”

Amid an ongoing immigration crackdown, U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents are under increased pressure, she added, and visitors can expect increased scrutiny entering the country.

She advised all travellers to carry documentation relating to their planned trip and showing that they remain anchored to Canada and intend to return. That includes bank statements, current insurance policies and return tickets.

The onus, Tchern McCallum said, is on the traveller to prove they're only visiting temporarily.

“Even as an immigration attorney. I always come prepared."

'Not going back'

The additional requirements on snowbirds come amid a chill in relations between Canada and the U.S., which has traditionally been its closest ally.

Trump’s threats of annexation and tariffs have seen many Canadians vow to boycott travel to the U.S. during his administration.

On Monday, Statistics Canada reported that passenger traffic to the United States was down to 1.2 million travellers in October, an 8.9 per cent drop compared to a year ago and the ninth straight month of decreased border crossings.

And while Snowbird Advisor is forecasting a 12 percentage point decrease in snowbird travel this winter, it also says the number of survey respondents who intend to travel overseas this winter has nearly doubled.

Twenty-three per cent said they were headed to international destinations, up from the 12 per cent who did so last winter.

'Not going back'

Since most snowbirds made their travel plans last winter before Trump’s threats towards Canada, "this is the first season where we're going to see what that impact actually is," said Snowbird Advisor president Stephen Fine.

That impact could be significant considering that an estimated one million Canadians have wintered in the United States in previous years.

“There's definitely a lot of people exploring other destinations,” Fine said.

Bob Bloomer is among those still avoiding the United States.

The retiree from Cobourg, Ont., said he'd travelled to Orlando, Fla., to play golf every winter for the past 20 years. But in March he cancelled his annual trip and said he would not return while Trump was in office.

“Still no change,” he said Wednesday. “Not going back.”