Bryan Brulotte: The war in Ukraine may soon come to an end, but the West will have lost

Canada now stands at a strategic crossroads. The war in Ukraine, once framed as a defining test of Western resolve, is entering what appears to be its final and least favourable phase. Ukraine’s battlefield position has weakened. Territorial losses in the east and south are mounting. American officials now concede privately that Kyiv’s position is unlikely to improve. As Washington signals that a negotiated settlement is necessary, the war’s outcome will be shaped chiefly by the United States and Russia. Canada and Europe will have little influence over the final terms.

This is not only a setback for Ukraine. It is a warning to Western democracies, including Canada, that have long assumed our preferred outcomes were guaranteed by history. The conflict has exposed the limits of that belief. It has revealed a Europe unable to sustain the war effort without American leadership, burdened by divisions, hesitation, and chronic underinvestment in defence. And it has shown that values, when not backed by strength, cannot deter an adversary determined to use force.

Canada’s contribution has been consistent with our recent history. We provided equipment, funds, and training. We affirmed commitments and stood with allies. Yet none of this altered the basic military balance. The hard truth is that Ukraine has been overmatched in manpower and materials, and the West has failed to generate the industrial response required to shift the trajectory of the war.

We must now confront an uncomfortable conclusion. Canada aspires to shape global events, yet we have allowed our own defences to decay. The armed forces struggle to recruit, train, and sustain themselves. Procurement is slow. Capabilities are aging. Defence spending remains low by allied standards. We issue strong statements but lack the means to enforce them. And we reassure ourselves that geography alone guarantees our security.

The Ukraine war has stripped away these illusions. It has shown that military power still shapes the world. Alliances, while essential, cannot substitute for national strength. Even the closest partners must balance their own interests. And democratic nations can no longer assume that the United States will always underwrite the international order.

Canada now needs a disciplined national security vision, beginning with four realities.

First, the United States remains our closest ally, but its global posture is changing. Domestic pressures and economic limits are reshaping American foreign policy. Canada can no longer rely on American power without greater investment of its own.

Second, Europe has shown courage and weakness. Its support for Ukraine has been significant, yet its internal divisions and limited capacity left it dependent on Washington. It offers a cautionary tale for nations that neglect their defences.

Third, Russia will emerge emboldened. It has absorbed losses, mobilized industry, and tolerated hardship. Its ambitions will not fade. As a northern power, Russia intersects directly with Canada’s Arctic interests.

Fourth, China continues its rise as the largest industrial power in history. Its military modernization and global influence present long-term challenges Canada is not prepared to confront. The assumptions that guided our China policy have collapsed, and we have yet to replace them with a coherent strategy.

Canada now requires leadership that is honest about the cost of national security. We must rebuild our armed forces. We must restore our defence industry. We must modernize procurement and revive readiness. A serious country cannot subcontract its security to others.

Ukraine’s eventual settlement will not deliver the triumphant end many hoped for. But it offers clarity. It’s a reminder that the world is becoming more competitive and more dangerous, and a warning that goodwill is not a strategy. And it’s a call for Canada to rebuild its national strength. Canada can rise to this moment, but only if we choose to.

Our security depends on it.

National Post

Bryan Brulotte is chairman of Sterling-Trust.