Snow storms complicate hopes for Rideau Canal skating season

A forecast of sub-zero temperatures should help thicken up the ice on the Rideau Canal this week, but repeated snow dumps could delay efforts to open the skateway with Winterlude just three weeks away.

Shawn Kenny, an engineering professor at Carleton University, was out on Dow's Lake this week taking measurements. He's finding the thickness varies between about 10 and 15 centimetres.

The ice needs to be at least 30 centimetres thick before the canal can open safely — and even thicker if the quality is poor.

Kenny found that the unusually warm weather over the holidays didn't thin the ice, though it certainly didn't help thicken it. The measurements were about the same before and after Christmas.

The forecast ahead is bringing temperatures that should be favourable to ice formation.

"We are having below zero constant values, so that would bode well," Kenny said. "Under ideal conditions, without any influence of rain or snow, then that would be close to sufficient."

Snow 'a very good insulator'

But conditions are not ideal. Tuesday's storm dumped 8.6 centimetres of snow and 2.4 centimetres of rain on Ottawa. Rain isn't great for freezing the ice, but snow is much worse.

"Snow is a very good insulator and it creates problems on the surface flooding techniques that are used," said Kenny.

He's also concerned that the snow could affect the quality of the ice.

"Prior to the snow storm the ice quality was very good, mostly clear, some areas where it had white ice or snow ice, but predominantly pretty good quality," he said. "Now it's going to be relatively poor."

For the first time in its five-decade history, the Rideau Canal Skateway, seen here in February 2023, remained closed last winter. (Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press)

The National Capital Commission (NCC) continues to monitor and assess ice conditions, according to spokesperson Sofia Benjelloun. She said the NCC was planning to flood the ice between the Pretoria Bridge and Concord Street N. on Thursday night.

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"We will then reassess the conditions and next steps after the snow forecasted this weekend," she said.

Turning to technology

Kenny won't venture any predictions for when the canal could be ready for skating, since another snow storm could "throw a wrench in the mix again."

The coming days could bring exactly that. Environment Canada issued a winter storm watch on Thursday, saying Friday night and Saturday could bring heavy snow, possibly of 10 to 25 centimetres.

Kenny and his students are looking at ways to conquer the snow through technology. They developed a snowblower robot that can venture onto the snow when it's too thin for humans.

In the future, they're considering fitting the robot out with ground penetrating radar that could measure ice thickness at the same time.

Those efforts are vital to preserving the canal as a skateway, given that climate change is likely to make Ottawa both warmer and wetter.

"As climate change continues, if we see more frequent mixtures of snow and rain events, then that will guide us toward different adaptation strategies than if we have a lower emissions scenario," said Kenny.